How much Grams in Telegram?
In this article, I will introduce you to the details of the economy and the initial distribution of the main token developed by the Durov brothers by the Telegram Open Network - GRM, aka GRAM (with one meter).
As usual, the main source of information will be the official whiterpiper of the TON network, at the very end, the last five pages are devoted to the description of the coin and various details related to circulation and distribution rules. We also add publicly available and not so publicly available information to roughly represent what will happen to this token, what price is valid at the current moment and how it is likely to change.
So, the GRAM token (note that the correct GRM code , not GRAM) is the main coin for the entire TON Blockchain, its initial purpose is to pay for network services. In a foreign language, this is called utility token. In order to somehow interact with the blockchain, send some transaction, load some kind of smart contract or launch it, you need to pay a small commission, the so-called gas. It is paid by grams. In order to become a validator and to be able to influence decisions made on the network, you need to deposit a very large amount, again in grams. This utility utility token, in fact, ends, it is no longer needed for anything. In fact, these are just numbers drawn on each account, initially they are drawn by the owners of the network, and then they are sent to everyone who is interested in them.
However, sometimes a second feature appears in tokens. People begin to pay them between themselves, assuming that these unsecured numbers on accounts carry some value. Moreover, this value is practically independent of objective factors. Almost ten years ago, 10,000 bitcoins were paid for two pizzas , and now people are ready to give a million dollars without trifles for the very same digits on the blockchain. This is a commodity token, a virtual token, as an expression of value. And now people are buying these very unsecured figures for real dollars, rubles and hryvnias. Either they hope to profitably resell them in the future, or they want to use the network (ha ha ha), or something else, but an exchange rate appears, the numbers drawn on the account get the ability to be exchanged for a certain amount of fiat money.
The distinction between utility and commodity token entities may seem insignificant, but it is extremely important for regulators, especially in the USA. Distributing utility token is one thing, commodity is quite another. The agreement with the original investors and the actual actions for the distribution of tokens are aimed at making GRM considered (and was) a utility token.
Initially, 5,000,000,000 (five billion) grams were drawn. This is the total number of coins in the network. Each gram can be divided into a billion pieces, nanograms, so there are no problems with micro-commissions and payments. Then these grams were sent to a special account of TON Reserve, a specially created organization that distributes grams to large investors. Moreover, they are spread not just like that, an interesting formula was invented. The first coin sells for $ 0.1 (ten US cents). The second is 1/1, 000, 000, 000 times more expensive, that is, for $ 0.1000000001, the third for $ 0.1000000002000000001 and so on, the usual geometric progression. Thus, the price of coins sold through TON Reserve can only grow, each next one costs more than the previous one.
This organization held two closed sales. The rule of “packages” was in effect at sales, that is, money was first collected from investors, and then they all received tokens at the same average price. No one was invited to the sale, the minimum contribution was $ 1,000,000 and, according to rumors, without a personal acquaintance with Durov, or at least good recommendations, getting there was extremely difficult. Sales data is recorded in the US Securities and Exchange Commission, so we can study the primary sources.
The first sale took place on February 13, 2018, 81 investors took part in it. The total contribution amounted to $ 850,000,000 for which, in accordance with the formula, investors received 2,251 million grams, at an average price of $ 0.377 . Under the terms of the purchase agreement, tokens will not be available immediately, but some time after the launch of the project, namely:
In addition, it is forbidden to transfer the claim rights of these tokens without the written permission of the Telegram. That is, reasonable efforts were made to prevent tokens from falling into random hands.
I remember how much hype there was in cryptocurrencies, how much scam crept out a year and a half ago, in connection with this sale, everyone was interested, but to fit into the topic was not easy, even if you had a free million or two to buy candy wrappers from Durov. Many were frightened by the long blocking of funds and the need to seek the help of intermediaries. Nevertheless, quite a few ordinary people in this sale were able to participate as unofficial partners.
Some time later, at the end of March, a second sale took place. She collected the same $ 850 million, the total number of investors rose to 94 (a total of 13 new people participated), and the total pre-sale amount was $ 1.7 billion, making this deal the largest in the short history of the cryptocurrency market). According to the formula, investors received 639 million grams at an average price of $ 1.33 , almost four times more expensive than the original. To brighten up the situation of late investors, they receive tokens immediately after the launch of the project.
So, almost 2.9 billion of the five issued tokens were sold at sales. Another 200 million will be earmarked for payment of development costs, and 500 million - for unforeseen (they are also operational) expenses. The numbers are inconclusive, but so far have been indicated. Moreover, these tokens are also considered to be in circulation, which means they affect the selling price from TON Reserve, in which 1.4 billion remain.
It is easy to calculate that with 3.6 billion coins sold, the starting selling price from TON Reserve will be $ 3.65 (if a smaller amount is transferred to the development and operating expenses fund, then it will be lower, up to $ 1.82 if nothing is transferred). This is the "reference" market price, from which everyone will start from. You remember that this price will only increase, and exponentially when selling new tokens. The only option when it can decline is with a buyback. It is stated that the TON Foundation reserves the right to redeem tokens from the market and return them to TON Reserve in case the market price drops more than twice from the reference price. Leaves the right - does not mean that it will be mandatory, but such an opportunity is registered.
On October 2, investors received a letter with important information. It states that before October 16, it is necessary to generate private keys for your accounts on the TON network and provide their addresses. In addition, they are invited to become validators, since both Telegram and the TON Foundation voluntarily give up control of the network even at the very beginning of its work, which I really like.
TON investors are now at a crossroads. Some, despite the explicit prohibition on the resale of tokens, is rumored to have already sold tokens for $ 1.6 and even $ 2, without waiting for the launch.
Others, at their own expense, decided to help the bright future come early and set up an infrastructure development company to develop applications using TON.
Still others are creating a company to coordinate resources and facilitate the sale of tokens on the exchange, as well as solve technical issues for stacking. They say that under their management about a billion tokens (one third of the ones released to the market), mainly from second-wave investors. A connection is established with large exchanges, possibly from this company, and recent offers come from, including from fairly serious exchanges for the sale of tokens immediately after the launch of the project.
It is important not to forget that GRM tokens, in fact, are utility tokens, they do not make anyone "co-owners" of this project. They simply give the right to use it and to participate in validation. To start “mining” grams, you need to have a certain number of them, while unknown, but apparently it will be hundreds of thousands of dollars, then these grams will need to be frozen on a special contract, purchase a fast server for processing transactions, and start supporting the network. A reward will be charged for this. Most likely, it will be established at the rate of 20% per annum, which, with the expected 10% of the total number of tokens frozen by validators, will give an annual inflation of about 2% . The parameter of the reward of validators is variable, an approximate estimate of the numbers so far. Funds are frozen for 1 + 1 month (one month of the validator's work, and another month for searching and charging fines for incorrectly processed blocks). It is hard to understand how many investors will choose this path. The offer is not so bad as to definitely refuse it, but not so good as to be overly popular. It seems to me that the estimate made in 10% of the coins “frozen” in the contract for validators is approximately correct.
This is the disposition, that is, the facts, now you can ponder over to understand which of them follows the conclusions, what will be the price of the token and how will it change in the first months of trading. Next are my speculations, yours may be more logical and interesting, please describe the possible development of events in the comments.
We will proceed from the reference price of $ 3.6, this figure has been repeatedly voiced in the estimates. It is assumed that it will probably not fall below $ 1.8, firstly, promises of a buyback, and secondly, there is a current balance between new investors and those who bought tokens for sale, judging by the prices of OTC transactions. Since the product is raw enough (you would see, more precisely, you would not see the absence of any documentation and how early adopters are tormented trying to figure out the source code of a virtual machine to win their smart contracts for a competition), then expect some kind of hype from the real ones users are not worth it. They'll look, think, try ... Mass adoption takes time and quality service. Service may appear, but ... then. Even worse, then, that is, after three months, a part of tokens purchased at 33 cents will be unlocked. According to the most conservative estimates, they have a profit of 500%, many will want to fix at least a part. That is, there will be no particular excess in the proposal. At what price will this offer be?
Since investors are not just random people, but specially selected, someone is just an oligarch / fund / investment company, someone is an IT activist who generally believes in the idea and has been waiting for almost two years, why not wait for someone else either a childhood friend and a person in general, someone participates in a special fund, and the fund understands how to liquidate positions correctly, then there will probably be few investors who like to pour tens of millions of tokens with a red candle into the floor. Moreover, there will inevitably be a certain demand, and if you are not in a hurry, it may be enough for everyone. We have a certain syndicate when there are a small number of sellers interested in two opposite things in the market: some want to close their position at the maximum price, another wants this price to rise, if possible, increasing the value of open (willy-nilly) positions.
The final obvious decision is to sell at a small discount to the reference price, probably 15-20%, which gives about $ 3 per gram, which, by the way, coincides with some estimates from the Internet. Futures trading on unsecured candy wrappers now goes around $ 2, that is, somewhere like that, $ 2.5 - $ 3 seems to be an adequate price that should last three months, until the release of super-cheap tokens from the first batch of almost a billion dollars. How much they will be poured - one god knows, plus there may be problems with the implementation of the project, some technical problems or even legal ones ... On the other hand, it is very stupid to merge a quarter of your investments, thus depreciating the remaining three quarters. Nobody will do that, which means we have not three months, but almost a year and a half, when the cost of the token will be kept at a comfortable level.
Further, everything will depend on the broad masses. If at least some of the telegram users buy tokens for at least $ 5-10, just give it a try - it will already be multimillion-dollar injections into the price of the token, which will not only support the course on their own, but also give a positive news background, a signal for investors not to rush take profits, for developers to start creating applications for the network and everything will spin. If not ... well, there is hope for the purchase of tokens by the network, there is hope that investors will not rush and / or competently manipulate the market and its expectations in order to prevent a sharp drop in prices.
For myself, I decided that I would think about buying grams at a price slightly below $ 2 per item, in which case I would definitely take the whole cutlet. Well, investors of the second wave will not, unless something bad happens, merge almost two-year investments in a promising product for 50% of the profit. For $ 3, the decision is already more complicated, you need to follow the news, keep your finger on the pulse of development. It turns out that the price of the coin will be plus or minus stable, it will slowly fall, under the influence of investor sales or, possibly, grow slowly when the public buys out an excess offer, allowing investors to take profits, and to join the digital revolution. I don’t believe in $ 4 or more (which means the release from TON Reserve) over the next year, the initial investors have too large amounts, too much uncertainty as to whether the Durovs will manage to make the project massive.
I hope that works out.
As usual, the main source of information will be the official whiterpiper of the TON network, at the very end, the last five pages are devoted to the description of the coin and various details related to circulation and distribution rules. We also add publicly available and not so publicly available information to roughly represent what will happen to this token, what price is valid at the current moment and how it is likely to change.
So, the GRAM token (note that the correct GRM code , not GRAM) is the main coin for the entire TON Blockchain, its initial purpose is to pay for network services. In a foreign language, this is called utility token. In order to somehow interact with the blockchain, send some transaction, load some kind of smart contract or launch it, you need to pay a small commission, the so-called gas. It is paid by grams. In order to become a validator and to be able to influence decisions made on the network, you need to deposit a very large amount, again in grams. This utility utility token, in fact, ends, it is no longer needed for anything. In fact, these are just numbers drawn on each account, initially they are drawn by the owners of the network, and then they are sent to everyone who is interested in them.
However, sometimes a second feature appears in tokens. People begin to pay them between themselves, assuming that these unsecured numbers on accounts carry some value. Moreover, this value is practically independent of objective factors. Almost ten years ago, 10,000 bitcoins were paid for two pizzas , and now people are ready to give a million dollars without trifles for the very same digits on the blockchain. This is a commodity token, a virtual token, as an expression of value. And now people are buying these very unsecured figures for real dollars, rubles and hryvnias. Either they hope to profitably resell them in the future, or they want to use the network (ha ha ha), or something else, but an exchange rate appears, the numbers drawn on the account get the ability to be exchanged for a certain amount of fiat money.
The distinction between utility and commodity token entities may seem insignificant, but it is extremely important for regulators, especially in the USA. Distributing utility token is one thing, commodity is quite another. The agreement with the original investors and the actual actions for the distribution of tokens are aimed at making GRM considered (and was) a utility token.
Initially, 5,000,000,000 (five billion) grams were drawn. This is the total number of coins in the network. Each gram can be divided into a billion pieces, nanograms, so there are no problems with micro-commissions and payments. Then these grams were sent to a special account of TON Reserve, a specially created organization that distributes grams to large investors. Moreover, they are spread not just like that, an interesting formula was invented. The first coin sells for $ 0.1 (ten US cents). The second is 1/1, 000, 000, 000 times more expensive, that is, for $ 0.1000000001, the third for $ 0.1000000002000000001 and so on, the usual geometric progression. Thus, the price of coins sold through TON Reserve can only grow, each next one costs more than the previous one.
This organization held two closed sales. The rule of “packages” was in effect at sales, that is, money was first collected from investors, and then they all received tokens at the same average price. No one was invited to the sale, the minimum contribution was $ 1,000,000 and, according to rumors, without a personal acquaintance with Durov, or at least good recommendations, getting there was extremely difficult. Sales data is recorded in the US Securities and Exchange Commission, so we can study the primary sources.
The first sale took place on February 13, 2018, 81 investors took part in it. The total contribution amounted to $ 850,000,000 for which, in accordance with the formula, investors received 2,251 million grams, at an average price of $ 0.377 . Under the terms of the purchase agreement, tokens will not be available immediately, but some time after the launch of the project, namely:
- 25% of the grams will be available three months after the launch of TON
- another 25% (total 50%) after six months
- another 25% (total 75%) in twelve months
- and the last 25% (only 100%) in a year and a half
In addition, it is forbidden to transfer the claim rights of these tokens without the written permission of the Telegram. That is, reasonable efforts were made to prevent tokens from falling into random hands.
I remember how much hype there was in cryptocurrencies, how much scam crept out a year and a half ago, in connection with this sale, everyone was interested, but to fit into the topic was not easy, even if you had a free million or two to buy candy wrappers from Durov. Many were frightened by the long blocking of funds and the need to seek the help of intermediaries. Nevertheless, quite a few ordinary people in this sale were able to participate as unofficial partners.
Some time later, at the end of March, a second sale took place. She collected the same $ 850 million, the total number of investors rose to 94 (a total of 13 new people participated), and the total pre-sale amount was $ 1.7 billion, making this deal the largest in the short history of the cryptocurrency market). According to the formula, investors received 639 million grams at an average price of $ 1.33 , almost four times more expensive than the original. To brighten up the situation of late investors, they receive tokens immediately after the launch of the project.
So, almost 2.9 billion of the five issued tokens were sold at sales. Another 200 million will be earmarked for payment of development costs, and 500 million - for unforeseen (they are also operational) expenses. The numbers are inconclusive, but so far have been indicated. Moreover, these tokens are also considered to be in circulation, which means they affect the selling price from TON Reserve, in which 1.4 billion remain.
It is easy to calculate that with 3.6 billion coins sold, the starting selling price from TON Reserve will be $ 3.65 (if a smaller amount is transferred to the development and operating expenses fund, then it will be lower, up to $ 1.82 if nothing is transferred). This is the "reference" market price, from which everyone will start from. You remember that this price will only increase, and exponentially when selling new tokens. The only option when it can decline is with a buyback. It is stated that the TON Foundation reserves the right to redeem tokens from the market and return them to TON Reserve in case the market price drops more than twice from the reference price. Leaves the right - does not mean that it will be mandatory, but such an opportunity is registered.
On October 2, investors received a letter with important information. It states that before October 16, it is necessary to generate private keys for your accounts on the TON network and provide their addresses. In addition, they are invited to become validators, since both Telegram and the TON Foundation voluntarily give up control of the network even at the very beginning of its work, which I really like.
TON investors are now at a crossroads. Some, despite the explicit prohibition on the resale of tokens, is rumored to have already sold tokens for $ 1.6 and even $ 2, without waiting for the launch.
Others, at their own expense, decided to help the bright future come early and set up an infrastructure development company to develop applications using TON.
Still others are creating a company to coordinate resources and facilitate the sale of tokens on the exchange, as well as solve technical issues for stacking. They say that under their management about a billion tokens (one third of the ones released to the market), mainly from second-wave investors. A connection is established with large exchanges, possibly from this company, and recent offers come from, including from fairly serious exchanges for the sale of tokens immediately after the launch of the project.
It is important not to forget that GRM tokens, in fact, are utility tokens, they do not make anyone "co-owners" of this project. They simply give the right to use it and to participate in validation. To start “mining” grams, you need to have a certain number of them, while unknown, but apparently it will be hundreds of thousands of dollars, then these grams will need to be frozen on a special contract, purchase a fast server for processing transactions, and start supporting the network. A reward will be charged for this. Most likely, it will be established at the rate of 20% per annum, which, with the expected 10% of the total number of tokens frozen by validators, will give an annual inflation of about 2% . The parameter of the reward of validators is variable, an approximate estimate of the numbers so far. Funds are frozen for 1 + 1 month (one month of the validator's work, and another month for searching and charging fines for incorrectly processed blocks). It is hard to understand how many investors will choose this path. The offer is not so bad as to definitely refuse it, but not so good as to be overly popular. It seems to me that the estimate made in 10% of the coins “frozen” in the contract for validators is approximately correct.
This is the disposition, that is, the facts, now you can ponder over to understand which of them follows the conclusions, what will be the price of the token and how will it change in the first months of trading. Next are my speculations, yours may be more logical and interesting, please describe the possible development of events in the comments.
We will proceed from the reference price of $ 3.6, this figure has been repeatedly voiced in the estimates. It is assumed that it will probably not fall below $ 1.8, firstly, promises of a buyback, and secondly, there is a current balance between new investors and those who bought tokens for sale, judging by the prices of OTC transactions. Since the product is raw enough (you would see, more precisely, you would not see the absence of any documentation and how early adopters are tormented trying to figure out the source code of a virtual machine to win their smart contracts for a competition), then expect some kind of hype from the real ones users are not worth it. They'll look, think, try ... Mass adoption takes time and quality service. Service may appear, but ... then. Even worse, then, that is, after three months, a part of tokens purchased at 33 cents will be unlocked. According to the most conservative estimates, they have a profit of 500%, many will want to fix at least a part. That is, there will be no particular excess in the proposal. At what price will this offer be?
Since investors are not just random people, but specially selected, someone is just an oligarch / fund / investment company, someone is an IT activist who generally believes in the idea and has been waiting for almost two years, why not wait for someone else either a childhood friend and a person in general, someone participates in a special fund, and the fund understands how to liquidate positions correctly, then there will probably be few investors who like to pour tens of millions of tokens with a red candle into the floor. Moreover, there will inevitably be a certain demand, and if you are not in a hurry, it may be enough for everyone. We have a certain syndicate when there are a small number of sellers interested in two opposite things in the market: some want to close their position at the maximum price, another wants this price to rise, if possible, increasing the value of open (willy-nilly) positions.
The final obvious decision is to sell at a small discount to the reference price, probably 15-20%, which gives about $ 3 per gram, which, by the way, coincides with some estimates from the Internet. Futures trading on unsecured candy wrappers now goes around $ 2, that is, somewhere like that, $ 2.5 - $ 3 seems to be an adequate price that should last three months, until the release of super-cheap tokens from the first batch of almost a billion dollars. How much they will be poured - one god knows, plus there may be problems with the implementation of the project, some technical problems or even legal ones ... On the other hand, it is very stupid to merge a quarter of your investments, thus depreciating the remaining three quarters. Nobody will do that, which means we have not three months, but almost a year and a half, when the cost of the token will be kept at a comfortable level.
Further, everything will depend on the broad masses. If at least some of the telegram users buy tokens for at least $ 5-10, just give it a try - it will already be multimillion-dollar injections into the price of the token, which will not only support the course on their own, but also give a positive news background, a signal for investors not to rush take profits, for developers to start creating applications for the network and everything will spin. If not ... well, there is hope for the purchase of tokens by the network, there is hope that investors will not rush and / or competently manipulate the market and its expectations in order to prevent a sharp drop in prices.
For myself, I decided that I would think about buying grams at a price slightly below $ 2 per item, in which case I would definitely take the whole cutlet. Well, investors of the second wave will not, unless something bad happens, merge almost two-year investments in a promising product for 50% of the profit. For $ 3, the decision is already more complicated, you need to follow the news, keep your finger on the pulse of development. It turns out that the price of the coin will be plus or minus stable, it will slowly fall, under the influence of investor sales or, possibly, grow slowly when the public buys out an excess offer, allowing investors to take profits, and to join the digital revolution. I don’t believe in $ 4 or more (which means the release from TON Reserve) over the next year, the initial investors have too large amounts, too much uncertainty as to whether the Durovs will manage to make the project massive.
I hope that works out.
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