Longrid on the realism of the quantum threat for cryptocurrencies and the problems of “prophecy 2027”
Rumors persistently circulate through cryptocurrency forums and telegram chats that news about Google’s achievement of quantum superiority has become the reason for the recent impressive decline in the BTC rate. This news, originally posted on the NASA website and then circulated by The Financial Times , coincidentally coincided with a sudden drop in bitcoin network power. Many decided that this coincidence meant hacking and forced traders to drop a fair amount of bitcoins. Like, because of this, the coin rate was flooded by as many as 1,500 “dead US presidents.” Hearing stubbornly does not want to die and is fueled by the firm conviction of the public that the development of quantum computing is the guaranteed death of blockchains and cryptocurrencies.
The basis for such statements was the work, the results of which in 2017 were shared by arxiv.org/abs/1710.10377 a team of researchers studying the problem of the “quantum threat”. In their opinion, the vast majority of crypto protocols that provide transactions in distributed registries are vulnerable to powerful quantum computers. I analyzed the information published on the network regarding the so-called “The quantum vulnerability of blockchains in general and cryptocurrencies in particular. Next are the results of the analysis and comparison of existing facts about the possibility of a successful attack on bitcoin.
Everyone who knows what a quantum computer, qubit, and quantum superiority can safely move on to the next section because they will not find anything new here.
So for a rough understanding of the threat, which hypothetically may come from quantum computers, you should understand what kind of devices. A quantum computer is a predominantly analog computing system that uses the physical phenomena described by quantum mechanics to process data and transmit information. More precisely, quantum computers use quantum superposition and quantum entanglement for calculations.
Due to the use of quantum phenomena in computational mechanisms, computer systems are capable of performing tens and hundreds of thousands of individual operations, and in theory, millions of times faster than classical computers (including supercomputers). This performance with respect to certain calculations is explained by the use of qubits (quantum bits).
Qubit (quantum bit or quantum discharge) - the smallest of the existing element for storing information in a quantum computer. Like a bat, a qubit allows
If we compare the classic bit, which contains 0 or one with a qubit, then the bit is abstractly an ordinary switch with two “on” and “off” positions. With such a comparison, qubit will be something resembling a volume control, where “0” is silence and “1” is the maximum possible volume. The regulator can take any position from zero to one. Moreover, in order to become a full-fledged model of a qubit, it still has to imitate the collapse of the wave function, i.e. in any interaction with it, for example, looking at it, the regulator must move to one of the extreme positions, i.e. “0” or “1”.
In fact, everything is somewhat more complicated, but if you do not get into the jungle, then thanks to the use of superposition and confusion, a quantum computer will be able to save and operate with colossal (for the present time) volumes of information. At the same time, he will spend significantly less energy on performing operations than classical computers. Thanks to reliance on the phenomena of quantum mechanics, parallel computations will be ensured (when to obtain a valid result there is no need to analyze all variants of potential states of the system), which will ensure ultra-high performance with minimal power consumption.
At the moment, several models of promising quantum computers have been created in the world, but not one of them has surpassed in performance the most powerful of the created classic supercomputers. Creating such a quantum computer would mean achieving quantum superiority. It is believed that in order to achieve this quantum superiority, it is necessary to create a 49 qubit quantum computer. It was about such a computer that it was reported in September on the NASA website, in a publication that quickly disappeared, but generated a lot of noise.
The development of quantum computing and quantum informatics, as well as the active media coverage of this topic, provoked rumors that large computing power could become a threat to distributed registries, cryptocurrencies, and in particular to the Bitcoin network. A number of media, mainly resources covering the topics of cryptocurrencies, annually publish information that quantum computers will soon be able to destroy blockchains. The authors of the study from Cornell University, who published this data on avix.org in 2017, scientifically substantiated the hypothetical possibility of a successful attack of a quantum computer on a bitcoin network. It is on the basis of this publication that most of the articles on “Prophecy 2027” were created.
When creating cryptocurrencies, one of the main goals is to protect it from data forgery (for example, when confirming a payment). At the moment, the use of cryptography and a distributed registry are quite capable of this task. Transaction data is stored on the blockchain, copies of the data are distributed among millions of network participants. In this regard, in order to change the data in the network in order to redirect the transaction (to steal the payment), it is necessary to affect all blocks, and this is impossible without the confirmation of millions of users. It turns out that at the level of data immutability, the blockchain is reliably protected, including from quantum computing.
Only a user's wallet can be problematic and vulnerable. This is due to the fact that in the foreseeable future the power of a quantum computer can be enough to crack 64-digit private keys, and this is the only hypothetically real possibility for any threat from quantum computing.
First you need to understand at what stage are the developers of quantum computers and which of them are really able to crack a 64-digit key. For example, Vladimir Gisin, an assistant professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said that the Bitcoin blockchain could be hacked in a world where there are 100-qubit quantum computers. At the same time, even the existence of a 49-qubit quantum computer, allegedly developed by Google, has not yet been confirmed.
At the moment, there are no reliable predictions when researchers will achieve quantum superiority, the more it is not known when 100-qubit quantum computers will appear. Moreover, at present, quantum computing systems are capable of instantly solving only a limited range of highly specialized problems. Adapting them to crack something will take years, and probably even decades of development.
The exaggerated threat to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from the side of quantum computers is also considered by Jeffrey Tucker, who substantiated his point of view in the work “Threat to Bitcoin from the side of quantum computing”. Among other things, Tucker draws conclusions based on the work of quantum physics specialist from Macquarie University in Sydney, Dr. Gavin Brennen. The Australian physicist is convinced that:
Brennen believes that the current quantum infrastructure has a relatively low quantum gate speed compared to that required to crack a cryptographic key.
It is also important to understand that when evaluating a quantum threat for blockchains, including BTC, researchers use data on their current state. Those. they assess the risk of breaking keys that currently exist with devices that appear in 10, 15, and possibly 50 years.
Back in 2017, the director of data protection services at IBM Nev Tsunich announced that measures to protect against the risks associated with quantum computing should be developed today. This statement was heard, and at the moment, post-quantum cryptography is already actively developing, which has already developed methods for protecting blockchains from quantum attacks.
The most notable methods of protecting the blockchain from a hypothetical quantum threat so far have been the use of the one-time digital signature of Lamport / Winternitz , as well as the use of the signature and Merkle tree .
Co-founder of the infrastructure-mining company BitCluster, Sergey Arestov, is convinced that the existing methods of the new post-quantum cryptography will nullify any efforts to break the blockchain in the next 50 years. The crypto entrepreneur gave examples of projects that already take into account the risks associated with the development of quantum computers:
After analyzing the above, we can confidently say that quantum computers in the foreseeable future do not pose any serious threat to cryptocurrencies and blockchains. This is true both for newly created systems and for existing ones. The danger of hacking distributed registries and decentralized currencies should be perceived more as theoretically possible (provoking the creation of more secure systems) than as any probable in reality.
Problems leveling the probability of the following:
I would be grateful for the opinions and lively discussion in the comments and participation in the survey.
Important!
Crypto assets, including Bitcoin, are extremely volatile (their exchange rate changes frequently and dramatically), exchange speculation is strongly influenced by their exchange rate. Therefore, any investment in cryptocurrency is a serious risk . I would strongly recommend investing in cryptocurrency and mining only to those people who are provided so that in case of loss of investment they do not feel the social consequences. Never invest the last money, targeted significant savings, limited family assets at all costs, including cryptocurrencies.
Photo content was used , as well as photos from this page .
The basis for such statements was the work, the results of which in 2017 were shared by arxiv.org/abs/1710.10377 a team of researchers studying the problem of the “quantum threat”. In their opinion, the vast majority of crypto protocols that provide transactions in distributed registries are vulnerable to powerful quantum computers. I analyzed the information published on the network regarding the so-called “The quantum vulnerability of blockchains in general and cryptocurrencies in particular. Next are the results of the analysis and comparison of existing facts about the possibility of a successful attack on bitcoin.
A few words about quantum computers and quantum superiority
Everyone who knows what a quantum computer, qubit, and quantum superiority can safely move on to the next section because they will not find anything new here.
So for a rough understanding of the threat, which hypothetically may come from quantum computers, you should understand what kind of devices. A quantum computer is a predominantly analog computing system that uses the physical phenomena described by quantum mechanics to process data and transmit information. More precisely, quantum computers use quantum superposition and quantum entanglement for calculations.
Due to the use of quantum phenomena in computational mechanisms, computer systems are capable of performing tens and hundreds of thousands of individual operations, and in theory, millions of times faster than classical computers (including supercomputers). This performance with respect to certain calculations is explained by the use of qubits (quantum bits).
Qubit (quantum bit or quantum discharge) - the smallest of the existing element for storing information in a quantum computer. Like a bat, a qubit allows
“Two eigenstates, denoted by {\ displaystyle | 0 \ rangle} | 0 \ rangle and {\ displaystyle | 1 \ rangle} | 1 \ rangle (Dirac's notation), but it can also be in their superposition, that is, in the state {\ displaystyle A | 0 \ rangle + B | 1 \ rangle} {\ displaystyle A | 0 \ rangle + B | 1 \ rangle}, where {\ displaystyle A} A and {\ displaystyle B} B are complex numbers satisfying condition {\ displaystyle | A | ^ {2} + | B | ^ {2} = 1} | A | ^ {2} + | B | ^ {2} = 1. ”(Nielsen M., Chang I. Quantum computing and quantum information)
If we compare the classic bit, which contains 0 or one with a qubit, then the bit is abstractly an ordinary switch with two “on” and “off” positions. With such a comparison, qubit will be something resembling a volume control, where “0” is silence and “1” is the maximum possible volume. The regulator can take any position from zero to one. Moreover, in order to become a full-fledged model of a qubit, it still has to imitate the collapse of the wave function, i.e. in any interaction with it, for example, looking at it, the regulator must move to one of the extreme positions, i.e. “0” or “1”.
In fact, everything is somewhat more complicated, but if you do not get into the jungle, then thanks to the use of superposition and confusion, a quantum computer will be able to save and operate with colossal (for the present time) volumes of information. At the same time, he will spend significantly less energy on performing operations than classical computers. Thanks to reliance on the phenomena of quantum mechanics, parallel computations will be ensured (when to obtain a valid result there is no need to analyze all variants of potential states of the system), which will ensure ultra-high performance with minimal power consumption.
At the moment, several models of promising quantum computers have been created in the world, but not one of them has surpassed in performance the most powerful of the created classic supercomputers. Creating such a quantum computer would mean achieving quantum superiority. It is believed that in order to achieve this quantum superiority, it is necessary to create a 49 qubit quantum computer. It was about such a computer that it was reported in September on the NASA website, in a publication that quickly disappeared, but generated a lot of noise.
Hypothetical danger to the blockchain
The development of quantum computing and quantum informatics, as well as the active media coverage of this topic, provoked rumors that large computing power could become a threat to distributed registries, cryptocurrencies, and in particular to the Bitcoin network. A number of media, mainly resources covering the topics of cryptocurrencies, annually publish information that quantum computers will soon be able to destroy blockchains. The authors of the study from Cornell University, who published this data on avix.org in 2017, scientifically substantiated the hypothetical possibility of a successful attack of a quantum computer on a bitcoin network. It is on the basis of this publication that most of the articles on “Prophecy 2027” were created.
When creating cryptocurrencies, one of the main goals is to protect it from data forgery (for example, when confirming a payment). At the moment, the use of cryptography and a distributed registry are quite capable of this task. Transaction data is stored on the blockchain, copies of the data are distributed among millions of network participants. In this regard, in order to change the data in the network in order to redirect the transaction (to steal the payment), it is necessary to affect all blocks, and this is impossible without the confirmation of millions of users. It turns out that at the level of data immutability, the blockchain is reliably protected, including from quantum computing.
Only a user's wallet can be problematic and vulnerable. This is due to the fact that in the foreseeable future the power of a quantum computer can be enough to crack 64-digit private keys, and this is the only hypothetically real possibility for any threat from quantum computing.
About the reality of the threat
First you need to understand at what stage are the developers of quantum computers and which of them are really able to crack a 64-digit key. For example, Vladimir Gisin, an assistant professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said that the Bitcoin blockchain could be hacked in a world where there are 100-qubit quantum computers. At the same time, even the existence of a 49-qubit quantum computer, allegedly developed by Google, has not yet been confirmed.
At the moment, there are no reliable predictions when researchers will achieve quantum superiority, the more it is not known when 100-qubit quantum computers will appear. Moreover, at present, quantum computing systems are capable of instantly solving only a limited range of highly specialized problems. Adapting them to crack something will take years, and probably even decades of development.
The exaggerated threat to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from the side of quantum computers is also considered by Jeffrey Tucker, who substantiated his point of view in the work “Threat to Bitcoin from the side of quantum computing”. Among other things, Tucker draws conclusions based on the work of quantum physics specialist from Macquarie University in Sydney, Dr. Gavin Brennen. The Australian physicist is convinced that:
“Given the level of quantum computing power currently available, negative scenarios are impossible.”I quote according to forklog.
Brennen believes that the current quantum infrastructure has a relatively low quantum gate speed compared to that required to crack a cryptographic key.
It is also important to understand that when evaluating a quantum threat for blockchains, including BTC, researchers use data on their current state. Those. they assess the risk of breaking keys that currently exist with devices that appear in 10, 15, and possibly 50 years.
Back in 2017, the director of data protection services at IBM Nev Tsunich announced that measures to protect against the risks associated with quantum computing should be developed today. This statement was heard, and at the moment, post-quantum cryptography is already actively developing, which has already developed methods for protecting blockchains from quantum attacks.
The most notable methods of protecting the blockchain from a hypothetical quantum threat so far have been the use of the one-time digital signature of Lamport / Winternitz , as well as the use of the signature and Merkle tree .
Co-founder of the infrastructure-mining company BitCluster, Sergey Arestov, is convinced that the existing methods of the new post-quantum cryptography will nullify any efforts to break the blockchain in the next 50 years. The crypto entrepreneur gave examples of projects that already take into account the risks associated with the development of quantum computers:
“Today, there already exist projects such as the Quantum-Resistant Ledger, which uses the Winteris and Merkle one-time signing algorithm, as well as the quantum-resistant blockchains of IOTA and ArQit. It is likely that by the time when at least hints of creating something capable of cracking the keys of bitcoin or ether wallets appear, these coins will also be protected from quantum computing by one of the promising technologies. ”
In conclusion
After analyzing the above, we can confidently say that quantum computers in the foreseeable future do not pose any serious threat to cryptocurrencies and blockchains. This is true both for newly created systems and for existing ones. The danger of hacking distributed registries and decentralized currencies should be perceived more as theoretically possible (provoking the creation of more secure systems) than as any probable in reality.
Problems leveling the probability of the following:
- “Dampness” of quantum computing and the need to adapt them for the corresponding operations;
- lack of computing power in the near future (“quantum superiority” as such does not guarantee hacking a 64-digit key);
- the use of post-quantum cryptography to protect the blockchain.
I would be grateful for the opinions and lively discussion in the comments and participation in the survey.
Important!
Crypto assets, including Bitcoin, are extremely volatile (their exchange rate changes frequently and dramatically), exchange speculation is strongly influenced by their exchange rate. Therefore, any investment in cryptocurrency is a serious risk . I would strongly recommend investing in cryptocurrency and mining only to those people who are provided so that in case of loss of investment they do not feel the social consequences. Never invest the last money, targeted significant savings, limited family assets at all costs, including cryptocurrencies.
Photo content was used , as well as photos from this page .
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