What exactly will happen at the moment of activation of the bitcoin segwit2x fork in November?

What will happen

After the introductory article on the situation with the current bitcoin fork, segwit2x, I’ll allow myself to dabble a little. What exactly will happen in mid-November 2017? Will all exchanges and users go to the new btc1 wallet (it’s precisely positioned as compatible with segwit2x technology), or everything will be together, including the miners who say oh we made a mistake, bitcoin core paws, let's live together and so on?

So, I think it will happen - the miners, suddenly, will not support the activation of the 2mb limit on the block size, until the bitcoin core says so. For example, now this is what slush pool is doing under a far-fetched pretext . Almost certainly, somewhere for a couple of weeks before the fork starts, just to recalculate the number of blocks after that, or right after the segwit starts in mid-September, the guys from bitcoin core will offer "well, just a great solution" to extend the limit on a block, with deadlines somewhere in half a year, and everything will be fun, with dances and bread and salt, this new plan will be adopted, and the bitcoin segwit2x fork will be unanimously released in exactly the same way as bitcoin cash. The exchanges will again start bidding behind closed doors, the course will again be just wonderful, all of us will be drooling, and there’s nothing to eat. And most importantly, this fork will be considered to be just as useless and temporary, plus one to the huge army of alts, doomed to oblivion.

What is Segregated witness

And we get the next 100 episodes of this 'Santa Barbara', called '2mb block'. And we will pay more commission, but then, because the following will happen:

Segregated witness by this point will be already activated as a month, and the updated wallets will begin to diverge among users.

In short, these are transactions in a new format, thanks to which it is possible to take part of the data outside the standard block of the old wallet so that it understands this transaction as valid but incomprehensible, i.e. clients will receive legacy money, but zero will be shown on the balance, but new wallets will store and process the old block and an additional one with the necessary information on the transaction correctly. This is such a tricky way to increase the block size by the number of transactions (approximately 2-2.5 times in an ideal situation) compatible with old clients, even the miners would not need to be asked (they can use the old version of the wallet without segwit support), although their infrastructure support is all Equally necessary, otherwise they may be offended - maybe this is what happened.

Of course, universal happiness does not come at once, until customers renew, it will take months. By the way, many popular wallets were prepared in advance, so the rest is up to the mining pools and exchanges, they are the main suppliers of transactions, and the rest will follow, because all the participants of the banquet keep their accounts on the exchanges.

Well, cool, there will be a lot of transactions in the block, and their cost will go down.

The network will suddenly unload, the current 1mb + 3mb of the segwit block will be enough for a long time, half a year or even a year. During this time, the lightning network is finally unreleased, and on its part will add even more blockchain unloading from transactions. It’s no joke, you just need to block a little money from your side and from the side, for example, the stock exchange and / or the mining pool, and everything, you are in the network of instant and super-fast transactions, occasionally release clearing transactions that equalize your balances between LN connections and everything - hundreds and thousands of transactions in both directions, you need to send 1 satoshi - no problem. And what will be the low commissions, you will download, the dream, one and a half Satoshi per transaction, half Satoshi per transaction, zero - if you are a member of some club, or some other body. Happiness and the next 'native'!

As a result, everyone will forget about the problem of lack of space in the block.

Not for long - a year or even three. And it will be the worst! The problem is nowhere to go! There is a block size limit and there are no any sane tools to expand it! All that the miners and the bitcoin core were able to offer to the community is a one-time expansion to the constant with the help of hardfork, and segwit doesn’t stand out much! 2-8mb, it's all garbage! Everyone will get used to it. After all, the increase in the value of the transaction in the blockchain will pass as unnoticed, as I described in the first article - the frog will cook slowly!