“Only nine meals separate humanity from anarchy,” Alfred Henry Lewis, 1906.
I am not a writer. My area of activity is hydrology and I earn my living by studying the elements of water. And, as it seems to me, this works out pretty well for me. In a nutshell, hydrology is the science of the water cycle in nature, starting with its evaporation from the surface of the oceans, the formation of clouds, precipitation and their transition into groundwater, rivers, lakes, reservoirs and return to the oceans. This is an interesting science, but one of its most important applications in our lives is to determine the boundaries of a river valley that can be flooded.
To begin to solve this important practical problem, we first determine what kind of "storm event" we are going to talk about. To do this, we take historical data on the amount of precipitation and apply several formulas from probability theory and statistics to calculate what the most severe storm can occur in this region in the next 100 years. We will call such an event “100 Year Storm.” Currently, scientists are trying not to use this wording, because people misunderstand it and are talking more about "a storm that can happen with a probability of 1% in each individual year." Further, using this data on precipitation, we use simple mathematics and calculate the boundaries of the river valley of the river, in which there is a probability of flooding.
If you have ever bought a house near a river, you should have seen this border. If you have not been shown this border when buying a house, then contact me to make sure that you have not made a terrible mistake.
We do not buy homes in places where the probability of flooding in each individual year is 1%, because we are not prone to risk. Why? Because we plan to live in this house for more than one year. If a loan for this housing has to be repaid for 30 years, then the probability of flooding for the entire period of time will significantly exceed 1%, because each individual year will be the next round of Russian roulette game. I also want to note that this is not just the sum of the probabilities. The mathematics of such a probability calculation is called the Bernoulli process, here is what it looks like:
P( textit100−yearflooding)=P(F)=1
P( textitabsenceof100−yearflooding)=P(F′)=1−0.01=$0.9
P( textitnofloodingfor2years)=P(F′) cdotP(F′)=P(F′)2==0.992=0.9801
P( textitnofloodingforXyears)= boxedP(F′)X
thus,
P( textitnofloodingfor30years)=P(F′)30=0.9930=0.7397,
that is, 74% without incident and 26% that the flood will happen
Let's go over the calculations. Flood probability P(F) is 1% or 0.01. The probability of the absence of flooding, which we designated as P(F′) is equal to 100% - 1% = 99% or 0.99. In order to calculate the probability that you are lucky not to experience flooding for two consecutive years, the event "not flooding" in the first year and again "not flooding" in the second year should occur, that is, you need to multiply these two probabilities, while receiving 0 , 9801. The probability of "non-flooding" for 30 years is calculated as the product of the probability of "non-flooding" by itself 30 times, that is, this is raising the probability to the 30th degree: P(F′)30 . It turns out that the probability of 30 consecutive years without a flood is 0.7397, or, in other words, there is a probability of 26% that at least one flood will happen during this time.
For this reason, the bank will refuse to grant you a loan for 30 years with a fixed rate, because 26% is too high a probability and we are talking about a disaster. Let's talk about a more terrible and massive disaster than a flood.
Survival Math
There is a definite misconception as to what the survivors are preparing for. This is due to the fact that this is a large group and they are all preparing for different situations. No, they do not plan to revolutionize or overthrow the government (at least most of them). Most often, they plan to protect themselves and loved ones for the period when someone else will try to overthrow the government. They are preparing for this, well, or for the zombie apocalypse (more on that below).
Although we do not have reliable data on how often zombies take over the world, we have good sources of information on how many times in a piece of dirt, now called the United States, they tried to overthrow the ruling elite. This has happened twice since the beginning of colonization. The first attempt, the American Revolution, was successful. The second, the Civil War, failed. Both of these events are of equal importance. Let's turn to math.
textitYearoffoundationofthecolony=$167
textitSamplesize2018−1678=340 textityears
textitRevolutionaryEvents=2
textitProbabilityofarevolutionaryevent=2/340=0,005882
textitLifeexpectancy=78.7 textityears
From here:
P(R)=$0.00588
P(R′)=1−P(R)=$0.99411
P(R′)78.7=$0.62858 or 63% without revolution and 37% that revolution will happen
Let’s explain the calculations. The colony was founded in 1678, that is, 340 years ago, and since then, bloody revolutionary events of a national scale have occurred with an annual probability of 0.5882%. Repeat the same calculations as with the floods above, and you will get a 37% chance that an average-life American will experience at least one violent revolution nationwide.
It is higher than the likelihood of flooding a house bought on credit in a river valley.
She is much higher.
Following the same procedure, we can calculate that there is a 10% chance of a bloody revolution for 18 years, which is interesting to think about before having children. It is also important to note that a violent revolution affects not only people living in places with a high risk of flooding. It affects everyone, especially the poor and defenseless.
But you are cheating!
Really? I admit that two events over 340 years are not the best statistics that you can work with, but if you take examples of other countries, you can see that the result can be much more pessimistic. From our reference point, 1678, there were two world wars in Russia, a civil war, a revolution, and at least half a dozen uprisings, depending on how you classify them. Depending on where the countdown began, there was a 30-year war in France, a 7-year war, a brutal revolution, a counter-revolution, Napoleon’s war, and finally several wars. China, North Korea, Vietnam, and almost the entire Pacific region have experienced a revolution in the last 100 years, sometimes even more than one. With Africa, it is not even clear where to start and end individual events. Most of Central and South America experienced revolutions over this period of time. And if we expand our analysis so that it includes not only civil wars and violent revolutions, as well as cases of enslavement, genocide, the seizure of ancestral lands, then our figures will grow even more.
Or we can look at the current situation. If we consider countries such as the Vatican, then at the moment there are 195 states on the planet. Somalia is in a state of ongoing war, Syria is in complete disrepair with no signs of any clearance in the near future, Iraq is in chaos, Afghanistan is in various civil wars as I recall. Libya has reached such a bottom of anarchy that they revived the African practice of trafficking in slaves . Venezuela. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict may also qualify as such an event. And again, Africa ... it's hard even to figure out where to start. Offhand, probably 3% of all countries in the modern world are in a state of any violent uprising against the ruling power, in some cases things are worse than others. Therefore, if we look again at our estimate of 0.5%, then it may even turn out to be low compared to the rest.
Or we can look at a broader historical perspective. After the fall of Constantinople in 1453, there were 465 independent nations, which are no longer there , and this does not take into account the colonies, separatist states and annexed territories. Even if we assume that half of these transformations from nation to country was peaceful, which is probably too optimistic, it still appears that on average one bloody transformation took place on average every 2.43 years.
If we just speculate, then we will come to gloomy conclusions. “Do you think that the United States will exist forever until the end of time?” Obviously, a reasonable answer is no. Therefore, it is worth asking the question not “if,” but “when.” Do not believe my calculations and the data that I give, collect your own data based on those sources that you trust and substitute them in the formulas above. Explore my argument as you please, but the result is likely to be intimidating anyway.
Develop a flair
In 2010, 8.5 million tourists visited Syria and tourism revenues accounted for 14% of GDP . After eight years, we see there half a million dead and another ten million who fled the country. People did not expect this, because otherwise they would have run earlier. No one noticed the approaching catastrophe, unless he was very attentive.
In addition, the country's elite rarely suffers in such situations. They just hop on the plane in case of what and wish everyone else good luck. The poor, powerless and defenseless will fully experience suffering, cruelty and death. They should worry most of all.
Let's say that you want to be careful, but what signs should you pay attention to then? Strengthening groups , civil unrest , calls for the overthrow of power , widening the gap between rich and poor , rooting of the oligarchy , helpless government , flourishing of violent ideologies like Nazism or communism , clashes during protests , masked people marching along the streets and dressing like Italian fascists , large-scale attempts on politicians . Each symptom separately may not serve as a 100% guarantee, but all of them together can act as a warning to those who monitor the situation. People with strong faith in the state tend to ignore such events and explain them with bias, while those who do not really trust the state see them as an excuse to buy a few more boxes of ammunition.
"Survival" is just planning in the event of a disaster
“But if something like this happens, then you don't care!” Yes it is. The goal of planning in the event of a hurricane, tornado, earthquake, or forest fire is not to become completely invulnerable. The goal is to become more secure . At ready.gov, you can find information about preparing your family for various disasters in the United States. On this site, the government provides an extensive list of what you can prepare for . The main one is the flood - my area - but it also lists many other events that can be included in the family preparation plan, from volcanic eruptions and tsunamis to space debris and nuclear "dirty" terrorist bombs. A military coup is not listed because it was drawn up by the government . But, in my opinion, the best scenario to be prepared for is an invasion of zombies.
The zombie apocalypse is, of course, a pure invention, but it has its own appeal because of its functional completeness. If you're ready for the zombie apocalypse, you're actually ready for anything . A key factor in this willingness is an understanding of what happens when the economy, government, and other institutions of power cease to function. You don’t need to go far for an example, right now in Venezuela people eat rats and dogs , nothing can be bought for the national currency and the country is immersed in anarchy . No one can cope with such a situation better than a survivor with good reserves. Preparation for the zombie apocalypse includes:
- food supplies
- access to clean (or treatable) water
- shelter away from zombies (or other people)
- subsistence agriculture
- medicines
- way to protect all of the above. In modern realities, this is a gun or rifle
- optional: escape method. Sailing ships are especially valuable on a similar list.
As you can see, for a highly moral survivor, firearms are a relatively small, but at the same time, important element of training. For the unethical, a weapon may be the only necessary thing if it manages to find someone from whom everything else can be stolen.
The Bosnian War is a great test case. According to the stories of people who passed through it, it can be understood that those who were inclined to prepare had the greatest chance of survival.
In addition, it’s not only some right-wing crazy people in foil caps who are thinking about preparation. It is widely known and made public that approximately half of Silicon Valley billionaires build bunkers in the event of an apocalypse, according to Steve Huffman, founder of Reddit. Ishan Wong, another former Reddit director, has teamed up with The New Yorker to analyze the profitability of such an investment.
Ishan Wong, one of the first Facebook employees, who was also the head of Reddit from 2012 to 2014, also made himself a laser vision correction in order to prepare for survival, thereby getting rid, as he put it: “from unreliable external means to maintain perfect vision ". In an e-mail, Wong told me that “most people simply assume that incredible events do not happen, but people with a technical mindset tend to evaluate risk from a mathematical point of view.” He continued: “These people do not necessarily believe that a disaster will happen. They consider it a distant event, but with a very large negative aspect, therefore, given how much money they have, it is logical to spend a small part of their fortune to insure themselves against such events . ”
And this is not only done by techies. Many Hollywood stars are also thinking about it . Here we are talking about big business.
Gary Lynch, chief executive officer of Texas-based underground bunkers and related services at Los Angeles residences, reports that sales in the most expensive sector of the market are primarily among actors, professional athletes and politicians (where compliance with non-disclosure) - increased by 700 percent this year compared to 2015, and sales in general increased by 150 percent.
This is another bell for right-handed survivors in foil caps - on the one hand, we have a class of people who are publicly zealously fighting for confiscation of weapons, but at the same time, some of them secretly build underground shelters without advertising it.
Buy more rounds. Seriously.
From a translator: if you want to keep abreast of events regarding climate change, species extinction, environmental pollution, the energy and economic crisis, as well as other systematic problems of humanity, then welcome to my Telegram channel “Dead End of Civilization” .